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Operator Burnout and Deal Economics
A founder's tears in diligence should have been the red flag. The earnout defaulted in 14 months. Here's the checklist that would have caught it.
Jul 27
•
Ruben van Putten
1
The Founder Role Fallacy: Why Replacing Yourself Does Not Save Your Valuation
Hiring a CEO months before your exit does not cut founder-risk. It proves buyers right and costs you the multiple.
Jul 24
•
Ruben van Putten
1
Why Your Operating Model Will Cost You 20% in the Exit
Buyers price integration risk before diligence even starts. Undocumented decisions become a discount at the term sheet. Here's the fix.
Jul 23
•
Ruben van Putten
1
Kelly Partners Group: Broken Business or Broken Price?
We called Kelly Partners cautious at six dollars. It is three seventy five now, through our fair value. The price reset, but the earnings are still…
Jul 8
•
Ruben van Putten
1
Why Elon Couldn't Walk Away from Twitter
A signed deal is a cage.
Jul 2
•
Ruben van Putten
1
June 2026
SoFi: The Records Keep Coming, the Price Keeps Falling
SoFi just posted record revenue, its tenth straight profitable quarter, and a 47% lower stock. The market is pricing a blowup the filings do not show.
Jun 24
•
Ruben van Putten
1
Thinking Fast and Slow
Investors tend to act irrational. So what does this mean for your assessment of an investment opportunity?
Jun 16
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Hims & Hers: Punished for Going Legit
Hims & Hers killed its highest-margin product to go legit, and the stock halved. The same management guides a 25%-plus snapback. Great business…
Jun 12
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Rocket Lab: Great Business, Dangerous Price
Two-thirds of Rocket Lab's revenue isn't launch. The stock is 95x sales, pre-profit, days before the SpaceX IPO. Great business, dangerous price.
Jun 9
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
May 2026
Micron Technology: The Memory Company That Isn't One Anymore
Micron crossed $1T on 81% gross margin guidance. The bear case: memory is cyclical. One of them is applying the wrong model to the wrong product. We…
May 28
•
Ruben van Putten
1
AppLovin: The Platform in the Wrong Costume
AppLovin sold its gaming business in 2024. It now runs at 85% margins, growing 59%, generating $1.29B FCF per quarter. The market hasn't updated the…
May 21
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Anduril Is Real. The Price Isn't.
Anduril is real: $2.2B revenue, DoD contracts, a platform no prime has matched. Secondary markets say it's worth $89B.
May 13
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
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