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Thinking Fast and Slow
Investors tend to act irrational. So what does this mean for your assessment of an investment opportunity?
Jun 16
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Hims & Hers: Punished for Going Legit
Hims & Hers killed its highest-margin product to go legit, and the stock halved. The same management guides a 25%-plus snapback. Great business…
Jun 12
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Rocket Lab: Great Business, Dangerous Price
Two-thirds of Rocket Lab's revenue isn't launch. The stock is 95x sales, pre-profit, days before the SpaceX IPO. Great business, dangerous price.
Jun 9
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
May 2026
Micron Technology: The Memory Company That Isn't One Anymore
Micron crossed $1T on 81% gross margin guidance. The bear case: memory is cyclical. One of them is applying the wrong model to the wrong product. We…
May 28
•
Ruben van Putten
1
AppLovin: The Platform in the Wrong Costume
AppLovin sold its gaming business in 2024. It now runs at 85% margins, growing 59%, generating $1.29B FCF per quarter. The market hasn't updated the…
May 21
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Anduril Is Real. The Price Isn't.
Anduril is real: $2.2B revenue, DoD contracts, a platform no prime has matched. Secondary markets say it's worth $89B.
May 13
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
Three questions that reveal if your moat actually exists
Three practical tests to validate if your competitive advantage is real. Score pricing power, replication risk, and founder dependency before diligence…
May 12
•
Ruben van Putten
Palantir: The best quarter that nobody believed
Palantir's best quarter ever. 85% revenue growth. 53% GAAP margins. The stock fell anyway. Here's what the market is pricing in and why it's probably…
May 7
•
Ruben van Putten
1
1
April 2026
Constellation Software: Diminishing returns at scale
700 acquisitions. $1.7B cash flow. 46% below its all-time high. The founder has left. Here is what the compounder is actually worth now.
Apr 24
•
Ruben van Putten
18
When "improving" an acquisition destroys it: The Quaker Snapple disaster
Quaker paid $1.7B for Snapple in 1994, sold for $300M in 1997. How confirmation bias and forced integration destroyed $1.4B in value in three years.
Apr 19
•
Ruben van Putten
1
How investor noise kills good deals
The same pitch deck, two different scores: what changed? Nothing about the company. Everything about you.
Apr 16
•
Ruben van Putten
1
Kinsale Capital Group - Insuring what others won’t
How a Richmond insurer built a technology moat inside one of the least glamorous corners of American finance, and what the growth slowdown actually…
Apr 14
•
Ruben van Putten
1
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